2025 NFL Draft: A First Look at the Projected First-Round Draft Order

With seven weeks until NFL training camp and more than three months until the 2024 regular season, it’s never too early to start thinking about the 2025 NFL draft. Using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), we can simulate the season 10,000 times and project the draft order for all 32 teams.

The NFL draft is always full of surprises, but with the FPI, we can get a sense of which teams are most likely to pick first.

The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times, taking into account game probabilities based on individual team ratings and game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

The Top Contenders for the No. 1 Pick

According to the FPI, the New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers are currently the most likely teams to earn the No. 1 pick, with the Patriots having a 21.9% chance and the Panthers having a 20.8% chance.

The Patriots are projected to have an average draft position of 5.1, while the Panthers are projected to have an average draft position of 5.7. Both teams have a high chance of earning a top-five pick, with the Patriots having a 66.3% chance and the Panthers having a 62.9% chance.

The FPI gives us a sense of which teams are most likely to pick in the top 10.

The Rest of the Pack

The Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers are currently projected to have the lowest chances of earning a top-10 pick, with the Lions having a 3.5% chance, the Chiefs having a 2.3% chance, and the 49ers having a 2.1% chance.

These teams are likely to be near the bottom of the draft order, with the Lions projected to have an average draft position of 24.4, the Chiefs projected to have an average draft position of 25.7, and the 49ers projected to have an average draft position of 25.8.

The FPI gives us a sense of which teams are most likely to pick in the first round.

Conclusion

While it’s still early to start thinking about the 2025 NFL draft, the FPI gives us a sense of which teams are most likely to pick in the first round. The New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers are currently the most likely teams to earn the No. 1 pick, while the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers are likely to be near the bottom of the draft order.

Stay tuned for more updates on the 2025 NFL draft as the season progresses.