The NFL season is just around the corner, and with it comes a new crop of head coaches taking the stage. As we look ahead to the upcoming season, it’s hard not to think about the tumultuous history of first-year head coaches in recent years. Since the 2018 season, seven coaches have been hit with the dreaded one-and-done tag, and it’s not as rare as it used to be.
New faces, new expectations
Take Dan Quinn, the new head coach of the Washington Commanders, for example. While it’s unlikely that any of these head coaches get fired during or immediately after Year 1, there are some things working against Quinn, mainly that he wasn’t the first choice of the new ownership group that recently bought the Commanders.
Quinn faces an uphill battle
Raheem Morris, the new head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, is in a similar situation. The scenario in which Morris gets fired is straightforward: Kirk Cousins has a season so bad the Falcons wind up in the top five of next year’s draft. It’s an unlikely one, but Morris has taken a job that has considerable expectations, even though the Falcons spent the eighth overall draft pick on Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback who isn’t expected to play this year.
Morris faces high expectations
Jerod Mayo, the new head coach of the New England Patriots, probably has one of the smallest risks of being a one-and-done. The only way that this would happen is if the Patriots put together a season on par with what the Panthers did last season.
Mayo has a secure job
Dave Canales, the new head coach of the Carolina Panthers, is in a bit of a different situation. Given the recent turmoil and turnover involving their quarterback and head coach situations during the David Tepper era, nothing is off limits here. However, the Panthers have to choose stability at some point, right? Even if it’s just for the sake of it. They’re locked into Bryce Young for at least the 2024 season, so Canales should have security past this season, even if it is a disaster.
Canales has a tough road ahead
Brian Callahan, the new head coach of the Tennessee Titans, is in a similar situation. Callahan being a one-and-done would be surprising given how the Titans have set themselves up to be competent this offseason. This isn’t a bad team, and they’ve attempted to give Will Levis a chance to succeed with moves they’ve made this offseason.
Callahan has a solid foundation
Antonio Pierce, the new head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, is in a bit of a different spot because he was the interim coach last season for a surge that ended up getting him the full-time job. He actually might be at risk here if the Raiders go on a slide (possible given their quarterback room) and take a few steps back from last year because he has familiarity with the program.
Pierce has a tough road ahead
Mike Macdonald, the new head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, is impervious to getting fired this season. The Seahawks would have waited an eternity for Macdonald.
Macdonald has a secure job
Jim Harbaugh, the new head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, is in a similar situation. The only way Harbaugh loses his job this season is if he scares everyone with his steak and milk habits. He’s going to have an incredibly long leash to get this job done, which makes sense given his strong track record as a head coach.
Harbaugh has a long leash
As we look ahead to the upcoming season, it’s clear that these new head coaches have their work cut out for them. While it’s unlikely that any of them will get fired during or immediately after Year 1, there are certainly some risks involved. Only time will tell how these coaches will fare in their new roles.
