NFL 2024 Rookie QB Outlook: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
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The 2024 NFL season is just around the corner, and with it comes a new crop of rookie quarterbacks looking to make their mark on the league. But how good (or bad) could it get for these young passers in their inaugural season? In this article, we’ll delve into the best- and worst-case scenarios for each of the 2024 rookie quarterbacks.
The Baseline
To set the stage, we need to establish a baseline for our expectations. I’ve compiled a list of statistics from the past five seasons, featuring 18 quarterbacks who threw for at least 200 passes in their rookie year. The results are telling:
| Category | High Mark | Low Mark | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comp. % | 66.67 | 55.65 | 62.56 |
| Yards Per Attempt | 7.35 | 5.82 | 6.83 |
| TD % | 5.21 | 2.32 | 3.72 |
| INT % | 1.798 | 2.969 | 2.285 |
| QB Rating | 98.35 | 79.71 | 85.67 |
| Sack % | 5.1 | 10.3 | 7.8 |
These numbers provide a solid foundation for our analysis. Now, let’s dive into the best- and worst-case scenarios for each of the 2024 rookie quarterbacks.
Caleb Williams
Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, 3,750 passing yards, 25 TD passes, 5 INTs, 28 sacks, 100.0 rating Worst-case scenario: 60% completion, 6.6 yards per attempt, 3,300 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 13 INTs, 45 sacks, 82.5 rating
Caleb Williams, the highly touted rookie quarterback
Jayden Daniels
Best-case scenario: 67% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 4,015 passing yards, 28 TD passes, 8 INTs, 44 sacks, 99.1 rating Worst-case scenario: 61% completion, 6.3 yards per attempt, 3,630 passing yards, 22 TD passes, 13 INTs, 55 sacks, 83.8 rating
Jayden Daniels, the athletic rookie quarterback
Drake Maye
Best-case scenario: 62% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 3,240 passing yards, 23 TD passes, 10 INTs, 29 sacks, 91.5 rating Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.4 yards per attempt, 2,700 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 14 INTs, 38 sacks, 75 rating
Drake Maye, the rookie quarterback with a strong arm
J.J. McCarthy
Best-case scenario: 67% completion, 8.0 yards per attempt, 3,360 passing yards, 21 TD passes, 8 INTs, 25 sacks, 100.8 rating Worst-case scenario: 62% completion, 6.7 yards per attempt, 1,407 passing yards, 6 TD passes, 5 INTs, 17 sacks, 81.1 rating
J.J. McCarthy, the rookie quarterback with a strong arm
Bo Nix
Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt, 3,780 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 8 INTs, 26 sacks, 96.3 rating Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 3,255 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 78.2 rating
Bo Nix, the rookie quarterback with a strong arm
In conclusion, the 2024 rookie quarterbacks have a lot to prove in their inaugural season. While some may excel, others may struggle. One thing is certain, however: these young passers will be under the microscope, and their performances will be scrutinized by fans and coaches alike.
