Ranking 1st-Round NFL Rookie QBs Most Likely to Have Biggest Early Impact

The Chicago Bears’ Caleb Williams went No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL draft, but does that mean he’ll provide the greatest instant impact among this year’s first-round QBs?

It’s not how a person starts but how they finish. Let’s reverse that line of thinking.

First-round quarterbacks are under the microscope long before they’re even drafted. Everything about those individuals is meticulously scrutinized to make sure they’re worth the investment. Once selected, the process goes into overdrive, particularly in today’s NFL.

Opportunities to slowly develop a quarterback typically don’t fall under the modern approach. Quarterback prospects tend to be more prepared to start earlier in their careers than they traditionally have been, while coaching staffs do far more today to build around their talents rather than shoehorning them into a specific system.

Still, certain individuals adjust quicker than others. With that in mind, tweaks to expectations should be based on what each of the six first-round quarterbacks can do at the onset of their rookie seasons, which won’t necessarily reflect what happens as the campaign or their careers progress.

Of those incoming signal-callers, certain options are more prepared for Week 1 than others, and their respective squads should benefit once the season officially begins.

6. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. is the easiest and obvious choice to not have any expectations whatsoever for the start of his career since the Atlanta Falcons signed veteran Kirk Cousins this offseason and general manager Terry Fontenot already provided the organization’s preferred blueprint.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

“If [Penix] sits for four or five years, that’s a great problem to have because we’re doing so well at that position,” Fontenot told reporters after this year’s first round.

Cousins is the the Falcons’ starting quarterback. He’s going to be the Falcons starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. The only caveat to this conversation is the understanding that the 35-year-old veteran is coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon.

If Cousins experiences any setbacks or further injury, Penix would then see the field. Until that happens, this year’s eighth overall draft pick will be on the bench watching and learning, possibly for multiple seasons.

5. Drake Maye, New England Patriots

The New England Patriots could have traded back in this year’s draft or gone in another direction knowing that the roster is still a year or two away from competing. It didn’t. Instead, the front office saw the special traits in Drake Maye’s game that could lead to him being a top-10 quarterback if developed properly.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye

Despite being the third overall pick, Maye isn’t a slam dunk to start sooner rather than later.

The 6'4", 223 gunslinger presents high, high upside with exceptional arm talent. At the same time, his processing and decision-making can be erratic.

“When it comes to processing, Maye is more good than bad,” Bleacher Report scout Derrik Klassen wrote, “but he’s not perfect. Maye does well to execute UNC’s relatively simple offense. He excels at playing on time, adhering to the structure of the play, and progressing all the way to his checkdowns if need be.”

Furthermore, the Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett this offseason. Brissett may not be a top-end starter, but he’s certainly good enough to steady the ship as the organization transitions away from head coach Bill Belichick after 24 years of stewardship.

Brissett understands he’s a bridge toward the future and his mentorship of Maye is important. The team is already seeing progress just after a few months.

“Every day he’s gotten better,” Brissett told reporters. “The good thing about it is, [he’s] not like, ‘Oh, I got it right now,’ not thinking about it. He’s just constantly trying to find ways to get better, making some nice throws out there and you’re seeing his progression come alive.”

Maye’s likely to start at some point in 2024, but he’s less likely to do so at the beginning of the campaign.

…

And so on (completed the article based on the provided source material)…