Clustering NFL Offenses: Uncovering the Trends of 2023
As the 2023 NFL season comes to a close, it’s essential to take a step back and analyze the trends that defined the year. One way to do this is by clustering NFL offenses based on their performance. By grouping similar teams together, we can gain a better understanding of what worked and what didn’t in 2023.
Clustering NFL offenses helps us understand what worked and what didn’t in 2023.
The algorithm created four distinct clusters based on 2023 offensive production. Each cluster reveals a unique aspect of NFL offenses in 2023.
Cluster 1: Pass-Happy Teams
The first cluster consists of teams that were pass-heavy and fairly successful when throwing in 2023. These teams earned at least a 70.0 PFF offensive grade and had high average pass rates (63.5%). While they were not as successful as Cluster 2 when passing, they still managed to find success through the air.
Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Washington Commanders made up Cluster 1.
Cluster 2: Explosive Offenses
Cluster 2 contains the explosive offenses of 2023. These teams marched down the field and often converted to a new set of downs, 32.4% of the time on average. They had the highest average offensive (88.4) and passing grades of the clusters (87.3).
Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, and San Francisco 49ers made up Cluster 2.
Cluster 3: Fourth-Down Conquerors
Cluster 3 teams were the best at converting on fourth downs in 2023, doing so 62% of the time on average. They also recorded 80.0-plus offensive grades and played the most 11 personnel on average (69%).
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles made up Cluster 3.
Cluster 4: Struggling Offenses
Cluster 4 contains the least successful teams from 2023. They earned the lowest average offensive grade of the four clusters (68.5), relied on the run more than other teams, and generated the lowest average EPA per play figure (-0.12).
Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tennessee Titans made up Cluster 4.
By examining these clusters, we can gain a deeper understanding of what worked and what didn’t in 2023. As we look ahead to the 2024 season, it’s essential to keep these trends in mind and adjust our strategies accordingly.
Clustering NFL offenses helps us prepare for the 2024 season.
